Sunday, January 22, 2017

Sunday 1 22 17 morning call

Allright, I'm not gonna call yesterday "another gorgeous day of surfing", but if you moved around the island there were plenty opportunities and fun to be had. I apologize for having been too negative in yesterday's post and I'm afraid I gave the impression that there was not going to be anywhere where to have a decent surf. Instead, I had two sessions at two different spots and they were both fun.

For the future, here's a statement of general validity: unless there are no swells in the water, and no matter what the wind is doing, there's always a place where to surf on this island. Always.

Here's the chronological story of my day.
After the first session, I drove Lahaina side to meet my potential students. We found a place that was protected by the wind but the low consistency of the waves didn't satisfy me (they're not absolute beginners) and together we called it off.

I got to Honolua around noon and, as I stated in the beach report), the consistency was extremely low over there too. Leftover sets of the old WNW swell were sporadically breaking every 15-20 minutes and the stiff offshore was giving them the usual clean and polished Bay look you can admire in the photo below taken at 12.15pm.

From the buoys (Waimea was already pumping) and from the knowledge of what the fetch did, I knew that the short period northerly energy was going to hit any time soon. I grabbed my longboard and hit the water when the conditions were still quite poor looking. This was the best set I had seen thus far and I gave the conditions a 1.5 in the beach report.

Then I got the opportunities to experience one of the most sudden conditions changes. In two hours the short period northerly energy started to fill in. Everything changed. It went from super slow to super consistent. The mix of periods I counted was between 5 and 10 seconds. Some waves were literally on top of each other, but thanks to the perfect shape of reef of the Bay and the offshore wind, even the shortest ones were rideable and fun. I went for a head high 5 seconds one and I had the feeling that the nose of my longboard was gonna touch the wave in front in the drop...
Amazing variety. The wave count went through the roof, since the same 20 people total went from a set every pope's death to relentless supply. FAR from being the best session I ever had there, it was for sure the one in which I caught the most waves. Or at least, the one in which I paddled for the most waves (I missed a bunch because some of the softest were hard to catch even on a longboard).

The size kept growing and after the second turtle roll that took my board out of my hands (very dangerous thing in such strong offshores), I decided to get out of the water. That's how the conditions looked from one of the lookouts at 4pm. Quite a difference, uh?

This body boarder found a rare close out barrel, but definitely the word hollow was not appropriate for the day.

Meanwhile a couple of wind and kite surfers hit the water at Hookipa and this is Cruser Putnam in a photo by Jimmie Hepp from this gallery.

During my trip back I encountered all kind of crazy weather conditions. Including a sand storm on Lahainaluna, heavy rain, blustery wind and of course plenty rainbows.

This is a short video showing the wind at Thousand Peaks that I estimated at least 50 knots with stronger gusts. Sorry if you can't hear my commentary, but that wasn't really necessary. The shaking of the car is eloquent enough.

Being sitting in there when that happened does not match my idea of fun.

When I got to Hookipa around 5.45pm, I was pretty surprised to see a kiter out in some pretty crazy conditions. Reminds me of Nazare.

The wind was gusting up to 45mph, but the kiter Nick Sabin looked in complete control to my non-expert eyes. The thing I liked the most is that not only there was no one else in the water, but there were very few people left on the beach at that time and with that crazy weather. He had Hookipa all to himself and it was zero show off (like it often is due to the natural amphitheater setup and the constant  presence of photographers and observers in general). It's not easy to have a soul session at Hookipa, but he managed to do that. He was clearly having a lot of fun.

There you go Nick, you may want to save this wind graph to show your grandkids one day. 20 mph difference between lulls and gusts, I don't know how you handle that on a kite.

6am significant buoy readings
South shore

Southerly readings disappeared at the buoys, but check the webcams because there is some little long period energy and today it might actually be a bit more consistent.

North shore
11.7ft @ 10s from 57° (ENE)

10.7ft @ 10s from 351° (N)

11.6ft @ 10s from 11° (NNE)

10.3ft @ 12s from 345° (NNW)
10.3ft @ 9s from 32° (NE)

I'm quite puzzled by the direction and higher period at the Pauwela buoy, my feeling is that during the day it will lose the little west in it and go down to 10s like everywhere else. In the meantime, that is an absolutely killer reading for the Bay again.
Below is the graph that shows the extremely steep rise that happened yesterday while I was in the water. Should be holding pretty steady through the day.

On Jan 20's call, I commented on the difference between the Winduguru and Surfline wave forecasts for Sunday morning 8am. Let me refresh your memory:
Windguru :12f 10s from 38 degrees
Surfline: 13f 8s from 70
It's not guite 8am yet, but you can tell that neither one was totally correct. I'll try to write down the 10am reading, but I might be in the water. Could use some help from the readers here.
In the meantime the 7am readings became available:
10.2ft @ 9s from 36° (NE)
9.9ft @ 11s from 347° (NNW)

Current wind map shows:
1) a very strong fetch that is producing a swell that Surfline call building on Tuesday (6f 20s from 318 at 2pm) and peaking on Wednesday (12f 16s at 8am)
2) the windswell fetch now moved completely east
3) a Tasman Sea fetch that is completely blocked by the north islands of New Zealand
4) a small/weak southerly fetch

That storm up there is quite intense and it deserves an old school weather map full of isobars.

MC2km maps officially won the award for the least regularly updated maps on the internet. They're stuck at Friday, so here's the much less explicit NAM3km map at noon. Fortunately today there's not much need of details: it's gonna be strong and easterly.

Bit of an old school post today. I enjoyed it, but don't get used because it took me way too much time to write it.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

3.30pm honolua has completely changed face. The short period north swell is picking up very quickly and there's overhead sets. Bit stormy, low crowd.

12.30pm honolua has inconsistent waist to occasionally chest/head high waves. 10 + 10 people. Wind is offshore, but pretty blustery.
For the bay, it's a 1.5

Saturday 1 21 17 morning call

Before I forget, thanks to blog reader Roy for his donation through the "Donate" button on the top of the right column of this blog.

Sorry for the late call this morning, I plan also my rarefied social life around surfing. Yesterday I had a friend for dinner, tonight I'm going to a party, and that's all because this weekend surfing is going to suck. Otherwise, I'd rather surf than hang out.

One more good example of how that "being prepared" concept that I mentioned on yesterday's call, is my yesterday morning's session. I surfed from 7 to 10 because I knew that soon after that the wind would pick up. The rest of the surfers in the water was totally oblivious to that. I even heard one getting ready to paddle out saying the usual:"I can't believe the wind is picking up just now that I arrived...". Had he checked this blog or the MC2km maps, maybe he would have believed it instead.

Anyway, those three hours were really good. The 8.4 I gave from the cliff was a bit high at times, but I got one wave from green trees to the channel and that's a 9 by definition. Until the wind picked up, it was oscillating between 7.5 and 8.5 and that is a really good day at Hookipa.

Looks like it was a really good day also at Sunset Beach in Oahu. This is Hookipa local Will Hunt on a beautiful wave during his effort in the WQS contest. Photo by Zack Dougan.

This is my young Brazilian friend Julia Camargo who did 5th in the Juniors.

5am significant buoy readings
South shore
3ft @ 14s from 274° (W)           
1.2ft @ 10s from 264° (W)
0.6ft @ 20s from 229° (SW)

4.2ft @ 14s from 298° (WNW)           
2.7ft @ 9s from 159° (SSE)
0.7ft @ 20s from 246° (WSW)
Still plenty westerly wrap at the two local south facing buoys, but I also like those small 20s reading. Here's the wind map of 7 days ago Jan 14 that shows a pretty solid fetch in the Tasman Sea. Whoever clicked on the great circle links I posted yesterday, now knows that a fetch in that position will generate a swell that will come from around 210. The directions at the buoys are more westerly instead, because both are still subject to relatively heavy westerly oscillations because of the wrap of the WNW swell. That is not something I read somewhere, that is something I figured out myself by empirical observation (like half of the things I write on this blog, to be honest).
Anyway, I'm interested in that because I have a possible lesson that, as usual, I will only teach if I deem the conditions appropriate. The main problem will be the wind, as usual the webcam and the mc2km maps (IF and when they'll updated them) will be of great help.

North shore
10.9ft @ 9s from 2° (N)
6ft @ 12s from 315° (NW)

7.6ft @ 14s from 318° (NW)
3.4ft @ 10s from 334° (NNW)

5.7ft @ 14s from 321° (NW)
4.7ft @ 11s from 324° (NW)

7.4ft @ 13s from 313° (NW)
3.1ft @ 9s from 13° (NNE)

The 11f  9s from 2° at the NW101 are explained by the buoy's position. In the past hours in fact, it has been right in the middle of the fetch n.2 of the current wind map below and it's heavily getting hit by the associated northerly energy. None of those particular waves will reach us: there's no Hawaiian islands straight south of it. As you can see from the buoy map, the NW101 buoy sits at 303 degrees and so its readings are significant for us only when they come from a direction around that.

A little better positioned for the northerly swells is the N buoy, which instead sits at 212nm at a 42 degrees angle, as you can see from this N buoy to Maui travelling times post. But we don't really have a buoy straight north of us. That's why we observe the fetches every day. And by doing so, we know that the fetch moved east a bit compared to yesterday and that we will definitely get some of that northerly energy. Check the Pauwela buoy during the day and you'll see it.

But for the moment, we do have a lovely 7.4f 13s from 313 in the water, which would hit most north shore spots and offer plenty surfing opportunities, but because of the wind, pretty much everywhere will be blown out. Forget about Hookipa (I haven't seen it yet, but I don't need to and I'll score it less than a 1 from home), you need to find a spot that is very sheltered and filters out chop and roughness. Good luck.

Current wind map shows:
1) a strong WNW fetch. After a couple of days of rest, the "Tokyo express" is going full steam again and the resulting swell of that fetch will start rising Tuesday afternoon and peak in Maui at around 12.5f 16s from 318 all day Wednesday.
2) the "local" northerly fetch. Plenty energy from this fetch with the following characteristics:
- rough
- super consistent
- disorganized breaking patterns
- strong dangerous currents
Having a fetch this close is not a good thing.
3) a small but intense fetch in the Tasman Sea. Fiji's off season has been amazing during the last month.

NAM3km map at 7am shows already plenty wind and that's why I'm writing this at 7am instead of being in the water. The next maps don't change much, so expect a direction that will definitely be more onshore than ideal for the wind related sports.
Hang on, I just checked the iWindsurf Hookipa sensor and it says 13mph from 71 degrees, which is pretty close to ideal. So there's actually hope for the wind propelled guys, but it's not gonna be a clear sky steady trades kinda day.

Friday, January 20, 2017

7am hookipa has a mix of different period head to occasionally head and a half clean peaks.

Friday 1 20 17 morning call

An early SUP session and another solo longboard session were my way of celebrating another day of glorious Hawaiian winter waves yesterday.

The wind and kite surfers went out at Hookipa, here's a couple of photos by Jimmie Hepp from this gallery.
Levi Siver.

Kevin Collins.

Miraculously, I found the time to do some investigation on the wave speed topic I mentioned yesterday and found this article that seemed to be the most reliable. I got to it following some links on this other one, which is a really good read if you have time and want to learn more about waves.

From it, I'm gonna quote this sentence: "It's matter of experience and choice as to what size, period, and swell direction each of us prefers, but if you know what the swell conditions are before you set foot in the water, you'll be a lot better prepared."
That is pretty much what this blog is all about.

Let me also point out this page with the world wide great circles, from where you can get the Hawaii great circles for the north pacific and the Hawaii great circles for the south pacific. The great circles allow you to see from what direction a swell from a fetch in a certain position will come and they take into account the curvature of the Earth, which instead gets distorted in the two dimensional maps that we commonly use.

Below is a table that has the following columns:

- P is the period
- S is the speed at which swells travel  in knots (nmph)
- T is the time to cover the 383 nm that separate the NW101 buoy from Maui
- GP's is the approximation of that time if you use the new and improved GP's rule of thumb, which you can easily remember because it goes: 13h at 19s and viceversa.

Everything in between (actually everything between 12 and 21 seconds), you can just interpolate by adding and subtracting 1h to the time and 1s to the period. The maximum approximation you get in the 12 to 21s range is 0.7 hours (42 minutes), which is plenty precise for me, seen the non precise nature of these things. And if you really want to b precise, you can always go to the labels section and check the usual "NW buoy to Maui travel time and shadowing angles" post which just updated.

  P               S                T               GP's
10s  =  15.6   =  24.5  =  22 n/a   
11s  =  17.16  =  22.3  =  21 n/a
12s  =  18.72  =  20.5  =  20
13s  =  20.29  =  18.9  =  19
14s  =  21.84  =  17.5  =  18
15s  =  23.4   =  16.4  =  17
16s  =  24.96  =  15.3  =  16
17s  =  26.52  =  14.4  =  15
18s  =  28.08  =  13.6  =  14
19s  =  29.64  =  12.9  =  13
20s  =  31.2   =  12.3  =  12
21s  =  32.76  =  11.7  =  11
22s  =  34.32  =  11.2  =  10 n/a
23s  =  35.88  =  10.7  =   9 n/a
24s  =  37.44  =  10.2  =   8 n/a
25s  =  39     =   9.8  =   7 n/a

Those travelling time are most correct for a swell that comes from 303 degrees, which is where the NW101 buoy sits compared to us. Any difference in the direction will introduce a difference in the travelling time, which for our purposes I would tend to consider negligible. Just remember that both for more northerly and more westerly swells, the time will be less than what the table says, but the energy hitting the buoy will not be exactly what we receive, so it's not worth to put too much effort into calculating the exact arrival time.

5am significant buoy readings
South shore
3.9ft @ 15s from 269° (W)
There were definitely waves in Kihei yesterday, check the webcams to check what's going on today.

North shore
6.2ft @ 14s from 305° (WNW)
4.9ft @ 10s from 324° (NW)

4.5ft @ 14s from 317° (NW)
2.5ft @ 10s from 336° (NNW)
2.2ft @ 12s from 327° (NW)
2.1ft @ 11s from 330° (NW)

4.8ft @ 11s from 321° (NW)
3.7ft @ 15s from 322° (NW)
3.2ft @ 9s from 43° (NE)
1.9ft @ 7s from 65° (ENE)
Below is the graph of the three buoys reported above, so we have a first opportunity to verify the validity of the new and improved GP's rule of thumb. I put an arrow on the peak at the NW101 buoy, which seems to have happened at 4pm Wednesday. The related readings were 15s and by applying the rule of thumb, we get 17h, which would suggest a peak in Maui at 9am Thursday. I put another arrow on the Pauwela's graph to indicate the peak. What do you think, is that 9am? It sure is close enough, the rule worked in this case, but I'll keep testing it for... the rest of my life!

The swell steady declined after that, and that's what we should expect locally throughout the day today. Still plenty energy to play with, but unfortunately a big mix of periods will make the breaking spots and patterns shifty and unpredictable. That's when your wave reading skills come into play. Unless, of course, you can find a spot that filters out some of the shorter period components and only receives the 3.7ft @ 15s from 322° (NW) that are leftover at 5am.
Both Pat Caldwell and Surfline (check picture well below) add a small reinforcement around sunset time, but I don't really see it at the NW101. It wouldn't matter anyway, there's plenty energy still in the water. Stay tuned for the Hookipa beach report around 7am.

Current wind map shows:
1) a newly forming fetch off Japan that is going to provide the next long spell of westerly swells
2) the eastern flank of an "in between storms" high pressure that unfortunately is going to get right on top of us and make for those strong onshores on Saturday in the windguru table below.
3) a small fetch in the Tasman Sea that will generate waves that unfortunately will be completely blocked for us.

Happy to have found the "old Windguru" option (look under "more"), I like it much better.
So, horrible wind on Saturday and Sunday because of that high pressure. I circled in red their wave forecast too, which is based on the NWW3 (NOAA Wave Watch III) model, which at 8am on Sunday calls for 12f 10s from 38 degrees.

The numbers at the same time of that day on the Surfline forecast are quite different: 13f 8s from 70. I thought Surfline based their forecast on the WW3 model too, I might be wrong! I'm gonna monitor both forecasts to find out which one was correct. Tell you what, I really hope that windguru wins the challenge in this case.

Nam3km map at 7am shows great conditions for the north shore.

2pm map looks similar, so no wind related sports today. But do check the MC2km maps when they become available.

There we go, they did become available in the meantime, let me propose you the 11am one that suggests the start of an onshore flow for the north shore. The NAM3km doesn't have the resolution to show that and the WRF2km is overall a more reliable model, that's why I prefer the MC2km maps. The can occasionally be wrong too, of course. Nothing is certain when you're trying to predict mother nature.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

7am hookipa has doh+ sets. Couple of guys out.

Thursday 1 19 17 morning call

A lovely longboard solo session marked my return in the water yesterday. I think Tuesday was the first day I had to take off the water in this winter due to injury (and it wasn't even strictly necessary). Pretty stoked about that, considering that last year I spent most of the winter dry (three long months) due to a rib injury. Life is good.

Windsurfing looked pretty bad for my taste (strong and gusty because of the offshore direction), so I wisely sat and took photos of my friends before going to work. Here they are in chronological order.

Bernd Roediger.

Jake Miller.

Steve Sadler.

Jason Hall.

Matt Pritchard.

Casey Hauser.
4am significant buoy readings
South shore
2.5ft @ 17s from 282° (WNW)

That is the WNW wrap, check the usual NW buoy to Maui travel time and shadowing angles post if you want to assess your chances of surfing in the Kihei side. If you can't be bothered, do check the webcams instead.

North shore
11.5ft @ 15s from 295° (WNW)

11.4ft @ 15s from 308° (WNW)

8.6ft @ 17s from 312° (NW)           
5.2ft @ 13s from 314° (NW)

5.8ft @ 17s from 314° (NW)
3.8ft @ 11s from 334° (NNW)
The "mistery" of the absence of the signs of the swell at the NW buoys yesterday morning was explained with their usual lack of sensitivity to the small long period energy. The local buoys are much better at detecting those, and my guess is that is because they live in relatively calmer waters. They might just be more technically sophisticated too, I have no idea.

Anyway they finally went up once the energy got significant in the 15-16s range and the NW101 peaked around 4pm (red arrow).
Here I NEED to elaborate about the travel time again and offer you a revised version of GP's rule of thumb for calculating it.
As you can see from the post I linked above, I based my calculation on the NW buoy to Oahu distance indicated in the Surfline article and just added 100nm for Maui: 255 + 100 = 355. Well, that wasn't too precise, since the real distance is 383nm instead, as the Google Earth image below shows.
Here's the new table, still based on those four speeds indicated in the original Surfline article. Got no time this morning to verify them and to come up with a new rule of thumb, I'll try to do that later. Help from the readers appreciated.

20sec--30kts--12.7 hrs

17sec--26kts--14.7 hrs

14sec--21kts--18.2 hrs

11sec--17kts--22.5 hrs

Back to our swell, the new table suggests that 15s deep water waves will take more like 17h to make to Maui, and that would imply a peak around 9am. But the waves do slow down in more shallow waters, so it might even be a little later than that.
Let's talk about size now. The Pauwela 4am reading was  5.8ft @ 17s from 314° (NW). In the meantime that I was researching all of the above, the 5am reading became available: 6.3ft @ 17s from 312° (NW). That is a confirmation that the swell is still building. Surfline's highest part of the graph (not necessarily the peak, since every point is spaced every 6 hours) is at 8am with 10.6f 15s from 313. That is definitely possible, also considering that in the meantime Waimea went up to 10.5ft @ 17s from 314° (NW).

6f 17s is already over my Hookipa limit (it's good to know these things, specially if you want to decide where to go before the sun rises) as it will offer some solid double overhead + sets. I'm a little perplexed because I don't hear the noise from the ocean I would expect with such size. That could be due to two factors, both true:
1) because the original direction is around 295 and the Hookipa to Molokai shadow line is 305, the sets will be less consistent than a unblocked swell. Less sets make less noise.
2) the shadow line of the Pauwela buoy is instead 299 (see image below), so the buoy might be getting a bit more energy than Hookipa.

Current wind map shows:
1) a wide but really weak NW fetch. A bit of a day of pause in the wave generation machine as the strong fetch associated with today's swell (circled in blue) has now moved north of us and it's aiming its fury towards the west coast. 31f 16s from 284 if the scary open ocean forecast for Monterey. I wonder if Mavericks is surfable at that size. My guess is not.
2) a small not well oriented fetch down south

NAM3km map at 7 shows light sideoff trades. The later maps don't change much, but I really don't like that you can't zoom in anymore without screwing up everything. If someone has time to report the bug, there's a procedure explained on their website. Thanks for that.
In the meantime, check the MC2km maps when updated (link n.17) because they are way more reliable.

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

8.45am hookipa has chest to head high sets and moderate trades. 4

Wednesday 1 18 17 morning call

Just a SUP downwinder for me yesterday, I preferred to keep my cuts dry.

Here's a shot from the SUP lesson the day before. As I wrote, perfect knee to thigh high waves and my student improved a lot.

No wonder, with all those waves he caught in 2 hours! He had a GPS watch and sent me the stats of the session. Pretty impressive.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore

0.4ft @ 18s from 211° (SW)

Lovely tiny long period SW reading. The WNW energy went down enough for the buoy to feel that. It intrigued me enough to go retrieve the wind map of 7 days ago (Jan 11) and sure enough, there's a small fetch in the Tasman Sea. Good job Lanai buoy, very impressive.
What's that gonna do? Probaly nothing, other than the odd long period knee to thigh high set once in a very long while. Check the webcams for confirmation.

North shore
5ft @ 11s from 299° (WNW)

4.5ft @ 11s from 304° (WNW)
4.3ft @ 9s from 312° (NW)
2.3ft @ 15s from 307° (WNW)

4.4ft @ 12s from 301° (WNW)

4.6ft @ 11s from 313° (NW)

3.8ft @ 6s from 71° (ENE)           
3.8ft @ 9s from 54° (ENE)
3.3ft @ 11s from 321° (NW)

No sign of the new forecasted WNW swell at the NW101 buoy. The NW001 has a very unimpressive 15s reading that makes me think it's not that either. Those buoys have shown not to be particularly sensitive to the long period small waves (the Lanai one just showed us how that is done instead), but it's understandable considering how rough the open ocean out there must be.
We'll probably still have to live with the old westerly energy all day. 3.3f 11s can be fun (if it wasn't for the wind and the windswell...). Probably still head high sets, but blown out by the trades as we'll see at the end of this post. Overall, it should be a pretty average day of surfing.

Intrigued by the lack of signs of the new WNW swell, I went to check out that Stormsurf website I published a map of a few days ago, to try to find out what time they think the swell will arrive. Not a particularly easy thing to figure out from their maps, I have to admit.
Below is the surf forecast map for 2pm. The violet stuff is 20 feet or more. Really? I'm curious to see what the Hanalei buoy will register. As you can see, it should have already reached Oahu too, while in Maui the numbers indicate still 8 feet. The little arrows are the wind barbs and make the reading of this busy map even more difficult.

The next available map is the 8pm one. I like the fact that it shows the big stuff just offshore of Maui, but not quite hitting our north shore. That's because of the WNW direction and the blockage of the upstream islands. But, how big is the waves going to be by the coastline? I can barely read a number 12.

Allright, 12 feet what? To have an indication of the period, you have to select another map. This is back to 2pm and you can see that by then the violet area of 20s should already be hitting. Wait, wasn't the surf 8f at 2pm? 8f 20s would be a massive swell, but that is so not gonna happen.

Those maps are ok if you want to qualitatively show someone the effect of the of the blockage of the upstream islands (like I'm doing with you guys), but they are useless for gaining the forecasted size of the waves. That might be somewhere else on the website, but I couldn't be bothered to dig in further because I went straight back to Surfline. Call me weird, but that's as clear as a wave forecast can get, IMO.

The arrows are spaced every 6 hours, and that's exactly the same temporal spacing of those maps above (confirmation of the fact that they probably use the output of the same models). By hovering with the mouse on the 8pm arrow (the first of the new yellow swell), you get a reading of 2.6f 18s from 320. Which means that, if that is true, we won't see much energy before dark at all.
The blue swell is the old one still lingering and the red one is windswell. Below you got the wind, the tides and even temperature and sky prediction. Simple and complete, I honestly cannot think about a single improvement for this graph. I hope they'll never change it.

In the meantime instead, Windity did change something and now this is the minimum resolution in which I can have both north and south pacific in the same map. Don't like it too much.
Current wind map shows:
1) WNW fetch. There have been continuous WNW fetches, so we're gonna have continuous swells from that direction.
2) Impressive Tasman Sea fetch in the middle of January. They're having a really bad summer down there (unless you're a surfer, of course) and Fiji's off season guests are having a good time.

The change they did reflects even worse in the minimum resolution that I can get the local NAM3 maps before they get all screwed up.
NAM3 map at 7am shows some moderate trades and it should stay like that pretty much all day.
As a matter of fact, the Hookipa iWindsurf sensor is reading 6 to 16 at 5am and I can hear gusts outside the window. I might as well go back to sleep...